
Fragrance (still) has a discovery problem.
Fragrance is the fastest-growing beauty category. And you still can't try it online.
For context:
_Every beauty investor says fragrance is the hot sector.
_Prestige fragrance grew 12% in 2024.
_It's now 28% of total prestige beauty sales.
_Teen boys increased fragrance spend 44% YoY in Piper Sandler's Spring 2025 survey.
And yet the fundamental problem of the category hasn't been solved: You cannot smell through a screen.
Fragrance keeps winning, but the untapped opportunity for a discovery infrastructure is huge. Let's look at the data:
_Carolina Herrera Good Girl Blush Elixir at $175 became the top-selling 2024 fragrance launch at $39M.
_Prestige fragrance grew 22% in dollars in just two weeks of pre-Christmas 2024 trading - outpacing apparel, footwear, and electronics.
_Scentbird's 1M+ subscribers pay $16.95/month to sample from a 1,000-fragrance catalog.
_71% of recent fragrance buyers don't have a signature scent.
Meaning: the gifting and sampling economy is already very real, but also dangerously wrong, because solving discovery online at scale hasn't happened yet.
And even more dangerously: brands are assuming TikTok solves it.
But in fact, that's just a bet on borrowed infrastructure:
Because TikTok's fragrance algorithm surfaces what looks good on camera, not what smells good in person. And actual scaling successes in the category prove, that real growth happens elsewhere: Glossier, Inc. 's You fragrance built a $100M category on skin chemistry — "smells different on everyone." That's a discovery story that can only be told after trial, and its TikTok content doesn't solve that.
And the discovery startups (AI scent profiling, personalized sampling services) are pre-scale. None has cracked fragrance the way Warby Parker cracked eyewear home try-on.
So the category is thriving on gifting, aesthetics, and brand identity - all of which mask the discovery problem rather than solve it.
Whoever builds the fragrance equivalent of the Warby Parker home try-on owns the category's next decade of growth.
Thoughts? Drop them below! 💭
#BeautyIndustry #Fragrance #BeautyBusiness #BrandStrategy #BeautyMarketing
Fragrance is the fastest-growing beauty category. And you still can't try it online.
For context:
_Every beauty investor says fragrance is the hot sector.
_Prestige fragrance grew 12% in 2024.
_It's now 28% of total prestige beauty sales.
_Teen boys increased fragrance spend 44% YoY in Piper Sandler's Spring 2025 survey.
And yet the fundamental problem of the category hasn't been solved: You cannot smell through a screen.
Fragrance keeps winning, but the untapped opportunity for a discovery infrastructure is huge. Let's look at the data:
_Carolina Herrera Good Girl Blush Elixir at $175 became the top-selling 2024 fragrance launch at $39M.
_Prestige fragrance grew 22% in dollars in just two weeks of pre-Christmas 2024 trading - outpacing apparel, footwear, and electronics.
_Scentbird's 1M+ subscribers pay $16.95/month to sample from a 1,000-fragrance catalog.
_71% of recent fragrance buyers don't have a signature scent.
Meaning: the gifting and sampling economy is already very real, but also dangerously wrong, because solving discovery online at scale hasn't happened yet.
And even more dangerously: brands are assuming TikTok solves it.
But in fact, that's just a bet on borrowed infrastructure:
Because TikTok's fragrance algorithm surfaces what looks good on camera, not what smells good in person. And actual scaling successes in the category prove, that real growth happens elsewhere: Glossier, Inc. 's You fragrance built a $100M category on skin chemistry — "smells different on everyone." That's a discovery story that can only be told after trial, and its TikTok content doesn't solve that.
And the discovery startups (AI scent profiling, personalized sampling services) are pre-scale. None has cracked fragrance the way Warby Parker cracked eyewear home try-on.
So the category is thriving on gifting, aesthetics, and brand identity - all of which mask the discovery problem rather than solve it.
Whoever builds the fragrance equivalent of the Warby Parker home try-on owns the category's next decade of growth.
Thoughts? Drop them below! 💭
#BeautyIndustry #Fragrance #BeautyBusiness #BrandStrategy #BeautyMarketing
Shared byShawn Sato - 5 days ago
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